Archive for December, 2009

• Thursday links: bear market in bears
  abnormalreturns, December 31st, 2009 at 11:19 am, Comments: 0

  Here’s wishing all of our readers a happy (and safe) New Year!  Thank you for all your support in 2009.
  Individual investor bears are a dying breed.  (Sentiment’s Edge)
  “It’s time for dividends to come back into fashion.”  (Breakingviews)
  2010 could see a reversal of the risk trade.  (Barron’s)
  The biggest risk for corporate bonds in 2010 are [...]

• Wednesday links: as steep as it gets
  abnormalreturns, December 30th, 2009 at 11:44 am, Comments: 0

  The yield curve is about as steep as it gets.  What it means for stocks.  (Bespoke also Crossing Wall Street)
  Have equities already priced in a sharp rise in corporate earnings?  (WSJ)
  “The possibility that there’s a link between the calendar and stockmarket performance, mediated by some combination of behavioural bias and weather related conditions can’t be [...]

• Tuesday links: historic lows
  abnormalreturns, December 29th, 2009 at 9:28 am, Comments: 0

  Joel Kotkin, “If the U.S. were a stock, it would be trading at historic lows.”  Don’t give up on the U.S. just yet.  (New Geography via The Browser)
  “Both sports betting markets and financial markets are efficient ENOUGH that you have to do your own work – and LOTS of it – if you expect to [...]

• Monday links: adjusting for inflation
  abnormalreturns, December 28th, 2009 at 10:45 am, Comments: 0

  Adjusting for inflation makes the past decade look even worse for stocks.  (WSJ)
  2009 was the year of the junk bond.  (VIX and More)
  Is it time for the dispersion trade?  (Daily Options Report)
  20 years of the yield curve.  (Research Puzzle)
  Five biggest risks of 2010.  (The Pragmatic Capitalist)
  Can Goldman Sachs (GS) take a bite out of the [...]

• Sunday links: forecast frenzy
  abnormalreturns, December 27th, 2009 at 8:07 am, Comments: 0

  Well said.  “The end-of-year forecast frenzy is simply a bit of temporally induced fun which shouldn’t be taken seriously.”  (The Psy-Fi Blog)
  Roger Nusbaum, “The reason to invest in foreign anything is for diversification.”  (Random Roger)
  For what it is worth the S&P 500 has retraced 50% of its losses.  (Big Picture, ibid)
  Why did stocks do so [...]

• Thursday links: a true bull market
  abnormalreturns, December 24th, 2009 at 10:34 am, Comments: 0

  Happy holidays to all of loyal Abnormal Returns readers.  Be safe and enjoy some time off.  The markets will be there when you get back.
  On contrarianism.  (Aleph Blog)
  The 2010 Bespoke Roundtable is worth a look.  (Bespoke)
  Some different approaches to trading ETFs.  (VIX and More)
  Here’s hoping for better ETF education in the new year.  (IndexUniverse)
  The worst [...]

• Wednesday links: momentum moves
  abnormalreturns, December 23rd, 2009 at 12:44 pm, Comments: 0

  The VIX edges below 20.  (VIX and More)
  The US Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is in positive territory for the first time in over two years.  (Carpe Diem)
  Seasonality is positive.  (Quantifiable Edges)
  How Newton’s First Law applies to big momentum moves like we have seen this year.  (Kid Dynamite)
  Ten thoughts (or so) on the past decade in [...]

• Ten thoughts on the past decade in equities
  abnormalreturns, December 22nd, 2009 at 2:52 pm, Comments: 0

  In this case we are talking about domestic equities.  And talk about what a bad decade it was.  As 2009 winds down it is clear that the buy-and-hold for the long term crowd was a big loser this decade as the stock market essentially went nowhere, albeit with some notable volatility.  After taking into account [...]

• Tuesday links: no hold bonds
  abnormalreturns, December 22nd, 2009 at 12:44 pm, Comments: 0

  Jeff Miller, “I have never seen a great investment where the first information came through advertising.” (A Dash of Insight)
  Andrew Smithers, “We see no reason for investors to hold bonds.” (FT Alphaville)
  A simple sector ETF momentum approach seems to work.  (CXO Advisory Group)
  Why ETFs are attractive to traders.  (VIX and More)
  Testing the theory of distribution [...]

• Monday links: lost decade for stocks
  abnormalreturns, December 21st, 2009 at 12:44 pm, Comments: 0

  By all accounts this was the worst decade for stocks in well over a century.  (WSJ also Calculated Risk, Falkenblog, Big Picture)
  Is the equity cult finally dead and buried?  (Institutional Investor)
  The decades served investors who diversified away from domestic equities.  (The Capital Spectator)
  If the US follows the Japan-model you need to ask:  “is your portfolio [...]