Archive for January, 2009

• Friday links: critical junctures
  abnormalreturns, January 30th, 2009 at 12:42 pm, Comments: 0

  “Peter Schiff predicted a collapse of the U.S. financial system. The bust-up he didn’t foresee was the one that made mincemeat of investors who took his advice in 2008.”  (WSJ.com, naked capitalism)  The response.  (Clusterstock)
  The 10-year Treasury note is at a crucial juncture.  (Bespoke also ETF Trends)
  A contingent bet on gold prices as it nears [...]

• Thursday links: gold sentiment
  abnormalreturns, January 29th, 2009 at 3:12 pm, Comments: 0

  Gold sentiment is decidedly bullish.  (FT Alphaville, BusinessWeek.com, Marketwatch.com also greenfaucet.com)
  The S&P 500 is trading at an implied annual sales growth rate of -3.7%.  (Value Expectations)
  Bill Gross is talking his book…again.  (Infectious Greed)
  What some big investing names are doing with their money.  (WSJ.com)
  Large hedge funds underperform smaller hedge funds.  (CXO Advisory Group)
  What are the pros [...]

• Wednesday links: dependent models
  abnormalreturns, January 28th, 2009 at 3:50 pm, Comments: 0

  “A big reason so many people lost money in 2008 was that they built investment portfolios too dependent on rising markets.”  (MarketBeat)
  “Financial models are indispensable. So is skepticism in their application.”  (FT.com)
  “I am guessing that momentum as a factor is overplayed at present, and it might be wise to leave it to the side until [...]

• Tuesday links: dividend destruction
  abnormalreturns, January 27th, 2009 at 12:44 pm, Comments: 0

  2009 has already been a bad year for global equity markets and it’s not even 1/12th over.  (Bespoke)
  Piggybacking on the TARP has not been a profitable strategy to-date.  (Alea)
  Dividend cuts are coming fast and furious.  (Clusterstock, 24/7 Wall St.)
  The CDS-bond basis trade illustrated.  (Market Movers)
  West Texas Intermediate is at risk of losing its crude oil [...]

• Monday links: an act of faith
  abnormalreturns, January 26th, 2009 at 3:00 pm, Comments: 0

  A prominent investment advisor, Peter Schiff, who claims to have been “right” on the current crisis, failed to make money for his clients.  (Mish also Crossing Wall Street)
  The Dow is just a mess.  (Big Picture)
  David Swensen takes a swipe at a big chunk of the investment industry.  (FT.com via Investor’s Consigliere)
  20 Ben Graham Net Nets.  [...]

• Sunday links: big oil buys
  abnormalreturns, January 25th, 2009 at 3:16 pm, Comments: 0

  Breaking down the source of stock market returns to build a better forecast.  (WSJ.com)
  Ten rules of market survival.   (InVivoAnalytics.com)
  Traders need to be aware of the macro situation.  (TraderFeed)
  A less than impressive debut for many 130/30 mutual funds. (WSJ.com)
  No model helped distinguish among mutual funds in Q4 2008.  (NYTimes.com)
  Why hasn’t Warren Buffett announced an equity investment [...]

• Friday links: model malaise
  abnormalreturns, January 23rd, 2009 at 1:05 pm, Comments: 0

  “Every trading strategy draws upon a model, even if it is not expressed in mathematical symbols.”  (Economist.com)
  Given the crash-like behavior of this bear market, don’t expect a true bull market to begin until October 2010, give or take a few months.  (Barrons.com)
  Looking for leadership in the four horsemen of technology.  (VIX and More)
  Bonds no longer [...]

• Friday links: model malaise
  abnormalreturns, January 23rd, 2009 at 1:05 pm, Comments: 0

  “Every trading strategy draws upon a model, even if it is not expressed in mathematical symbols.”  (Economist.com)
  Given the crash-like behavior of this bear market, don’t expect a true bull market to begin until October 2010, give or take a few months.  (Barrons.com)
  Looking for leadership in the four horsemen of technology.  (VIX and More)
  Bonds no longer [...]

• Thursday links: bank mitosis
  abnormalreturns, January 22nd, 2009 at 12:56 pm, Comments: 0

  Investors pulled $152 billion from hedge funds in Q4 2008.  Although top performers still gained assets. (DealBook)
  Was 2008 the year to give Warren Buffett the CEO of the Year Award?  (Jeff Matthews)
  Infrastructure is a key theme for 2009.  (Kirk Report)
  Who knew there was credit risk in currency ETFs?  (Aleph Blog)
  A look at what can happen [...]

• Wednesday links: the right data
  abnormalreturns, January 21st, 2009 at 1:24 pm, Comments: 0

  State Street (STT) was supposed to be relatively immune to the credit crisis.  Think again.  (WSJ.com, breakingviews.com, 24/7 Wall St.)
  Do investors in the SPDR family of ETFs need to worry?  (Morningstar.com)
  Toxic assets aside, Bank of America (BAC) has a serious communication problem.  (Deal Journal)
  Bank market capitalizations are a shadow of their former selves.  (Infectious Greed)
  The [...]