Archive for December, 2008

• Wednesday links: why buy bonds?
  abnormalreturns, December 31st, 2008 at 11:08 am, Comments: 0

  “If 2008 was the year of systemic risk, particularly in the financial sector, 2009 seems likely to be a year dominated by specific risk.”  (Economist.com)
  “So why buy bonds?”  (Market Movers)
  Activist investors have stepped up their efforts.  (WSJ.com)
  Bill Miller: bad year, great December.  (Clusterstock)
  Read 2009 Investment Guides with a large grain of salt.  (Big Picture)
  “So, our [...]

• Tuesday links: cash on the sidelines
  abnormalreturns, December 30th, 2008 at 2:21 pm, Comments: 0

  There is a lot of cash on the sidelines.  (Bloomberg.com)
  “Confidence is a fragile commodity.”  (FT.com)
  “Never invest in something you don’t understand.”  (WSJ.com)
  “The VIX is what it is. A snapshot of index volatility.”  (Daily Options Report)
  High yield bond spreads have come in…a little bit.  (Bespoke)
  20 surprises for 2009.  (TheStreet.com)
  Models work, until they don’t.  (Crossing Wall Street)
  How [...]

• Sunday links: retail reductions
  abnormalreturns, December 28th, 2008 at 4:08 pm, Comments: 0

  “But I do think that we’re seeing the beginning of a secular downshift in the percentage of the US economy accounted for by retail sales.”  (Market Movers)
  25% of retailers may go bankrupt in this cycle.  (Clusterstock also 24/7 Wall St.)
  “Which securities will perform best after the current credit crisis, and which will fare worst?”  (NYTimes.com)
  Investors [...]

• Friday links: savings, bankruptcy and microgiving
  abnormalreturns, December 26th, 2008 at 12:31 pm, Comments: 0

  The key word for 2009:  savings.  (Real Time Economics, Capital Spectator, Calculated Risk)
  Or maybe bankruptcies? (Big Picture)
  Then again, maybe “microgiving” is the word for 2009?  (Howard Lindzon)
  Blaming the Chicago School of Economics for our current mess misses the point(s).  (Going Private)
  Corporate bonds vs. stocks.  You make the call.  (WSJ.com)
  “Sell in May” has not always worked.  [...]

• Tuesday links: demand destruction
  abnormalreturns, December 23rd, 2008 at 12:31 pm, Comments: 0

  The smart money turned out to be not all that smart.  (Portfolio.com)
  When Bernie Madoff may have gone off the rails.  (Market Movers)
  Why did Madoff do it?  (Daily Beast)
  These guys are all over the Madoff story.  Too many posts to link.  (Clusterstock)
  More signs of tough times in the world of alternative investments.  (WSJ.com, ibid, DealBook)
  Ohhhh, my [...]

• Happy holidays
  abnormalreturns, December 23rd, 2008 at 12:30 pm, Comments: 0

  We here at Abnormal Returns wanted to write a quick note to all of our readers before the holiday season begins in earnest.
  We want to to thank you all of you for your continued support of our humble blog.  Interest continued to grow throughout the year as more people added us to their feed readers [...]

• Monday links: a radical reduction in debt
  abnormalreturns, December 22nd, 2008 at 11:45 am, Comments: 0

  “(W)hat we’ve seen in leverage and credit growth during the past 15 years is NOT normal, nor is it sustainable – neither relative to history or in absolute terms.”  (Cassandra via various)
  “More than half of the small investors surveyed still expect annual gains of 10% or more over the next decade — at, or above, [...]

• Sunday links: overcorrection to the downside
  abnormalreturns, December 21st, 2008 at 7:02 pm, Comments: 0

  “Trust itself entered a bear market in 2008, complementing and perhaps surpassing the selloffs in stocks, mortgages and commodities.”  (WSJ.com)
  Rob Arnott on how to look at asset allocation in the new investment environment.  (Barrons.com)
  The many ways that “..investment managers can gussy up an ugly portfolio at year end.”  (WSJ.com)
  A turn-of-the-month strategy seems to hold water.  [...]

• Friday links: fragile ecosystems
  abnormalreturns, December 19th, 2008 at 1:00 pm, Comments: 0

  “This was the year the financial system stopped working.”   (NYTimes.com)
  Kiss that $17 billion goodbye.  (DealBook, FT Alphaville, Real Time Economics, Clusterstock)
  Everybody likes this plan for Wall Street bonuses, except Credit Suisse bankers.  (breakingviews.com, Deal Journal, Clusterstock, Curious Capitalist, Asymmetrical Information)
  “If you want to know why a sociopath like Madoff slipped throught the cracks — as [...]

• Thursday links: sticky bonuses
  abnormalreturns, December 18th, 2008 at 1:05 pm, Comments: 0

  Wall Street ran on ever increasing bonuses, to the detriment of the firms and the economy.  (NYTimes.com also naked capitalism, TheDeal.com, Big Picture)
  An interesting way to deal with Wall Street bonuses? (Alea, DealBook)
  How sticky are wages?  Apparently, not very, at FedEx (FDX).  (Market Movers also Real Time Economics)
  For ten years Harry Markopolos knew Madoff’s returns [...]