Archive for October, 2008

• Friday links: faltering growth
  abnormalreturns, October 31st, 2008 at 12:44 pm, Comments: 0

  “(T)hose who thought Yale had found the key to success have been disappointed.”  (Economist.com also Bull Bear Trader)
  Yet another look at the statistical validity of the “Halloween Indicator.”  (Marketwatch.com)
  “When investors are in trouble, they sell what they can, not what they would like to.”  (Economist.com)
  “The next 30 days are lining up to be difficult for [...]

• Thursday links: change is good
  abnormalreturns, October 30th, 2008 at 12:21 pm, Comments: 0

  “Churning is a sign of change and change is good following a long bear market.”  (Barrons.com)
  “In finance, we know less than we think, so we should be cautious in our conclusions.”  (Aleph Blog)
  “Face it…you missed the bearish call. You are down 40 percent.”  (Howard Lindzon)
  Arbitrageurs are “flummoxed.”  (Deal Journal also DealBook)
  Securities lending programs are coming [...]

• Wednesday links: utterly schizophrenic
  abnormalreturns, October 29th, 2008 at 12:48 pm, Comments: 0

  At today’s prices TIPS are an attractive alternative to cash.  (Barrons.com, WSJ.com)
  “It is a confusing time to be running money, especially using quantitative approaches, where recent events create statistical outcomes so out of step with the past that historical analysis is of limited value.”  (Information Arbitrage)
  “How much further must this de-leveraging process go on?”  (Dash [...]

• Tuesday links: always a bubble somewhere
  abnormalreturns, October 28th, 2008 at 2:32 pm, Comments: 0

  The Pickens Purge.  Investors ask for their money back.  (WSJ.com)
  Hedge funds are on track for another horrible month.  (NYPost.com)
  Investing like Yale is not as easy as it looks.  (FT.com)
  There is always a bubble somewhere.  (NakedShorts)
  A record low in consumer confidence and its value as a contrarian indicator.  (Big Picture)
  Has shrinkage in prime brokerage capacity lead [...]

• Monday links: brash market calls
  abnormalreturns, October 27th, 2008 at 12:22 pm, Comments: 0

  “For the first time in a couple of decades, stocks are now relatively cheap (US, developed markets, emerging).  Now is not the time to abandon a disciplined long-term investment plan.”  (Clusterstock)
  “The great paradox of the sell-off, then, is that the factors that were supposed to increase the flow of information to investors, foster long-term thinking, [...]

• False diversification and the rise of novel asset classes
  abnormalreturns, October 24th, 2008 at 12:13 pm, Comments: 0

  One of the many disappointments of the current crisis has been the utter failure of diversification to shield investors from harm.  Absent an investment in plain vanilla Treasuries every asset class has seen historically poor performance.  While every one would agree these are unique times that does not erase the losses that have already occurred.
  The [...]

• Thursday links: absent edition
  abnormalreturns, October 23rd, 2008 at 2:05 pm, Comments: 0

  Due to unforeseen circumstances there will be no linkfest for a few days.   In the meantime you can check out some of the other notable linkfests out there:  Kirk Report, Economist’s View and naked capitalism.  Good luck out there.
  Thanks for checking in with Abnormal Returns. Feel free to contact us with any questions and/or comments.

• Wednesday links: we get letters
  abnormalreturns, October 22nd, 2008 at 12:51 pm, Comments: 0

  Hedge fund managers are trying to assuage investors with their dear investor letters.  (WSJ.com also The Big Money)
  At least some one made money on the nearly 50% decline in GE (GE) shares this year.  (Deal Journal)
  It is a tough environment to ask hedge fund investors for a long-term commitment.  (WSJ.com)
  Taking a look at how some [...]

• Tuesday links: buyback blow-ups
  abnormalreturns, October 21st, 2008 at 12:41 pm, Comments: 0

  More signs the credit markets are tentatively returning to normalcy.  (Alea, WSJ.com, Curious Capitalist)
  Can value investors time the market?  (Market Movers)
  One market valuation indicator has not been this bullish since 1990.  (Marketwatch.com)
  “(W)e simply haven’t yet seen the impact of the credit crunch on earnings yet.”  (Dealbreaker)
  Have equity markets ignored the rising risks of default?  (FT [...]

• Monday links: reasons for optimism
  abnormalreturns, October 20th, 2008 at 3:39 pm, Comments: 0

  Credit market conditions are improving.  (Alea, MarketBeat, Market Movers)
  Fiscal stimulus, part two.  (Real Time Economics)
  There have been no IPOs for ten weeks.  That’s a record.  (WSJ.com)
  “After years of binging, the buyout boys are tightening their belts for the rocky ride ahead.”  (WSJ.com)
  Buying stocks, imply selling Treasury bonds.  (NakedShorts)
  Investors need to look beyond simple dividend yields.  [...]